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McKinsey Valuation 7th Edition
Complete Valuation Methods Guide
企業估值方法全覽
Professional reference with interactive DCF calculator, sensitivity analysis, and S&P 500 examples
Method Selection Guide
估值方法選擇指南
| Company Type 公司類型 | Primary Method 主要方法 | Cross-Check 交叉驗證 | Key Consideration 關鍵考量 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mature & Stable 成熟穩定企業 | ⭐ Enterprise DCF | EV/EBITA, P/E | Focus on ROIC vs WACC spread |
| High-Growth Tech 高增長科技 | Scenario DCF | EV/Revenue, PEG | Weight multiple scenarios |
| Banks / Financial 銀行/金融 | Equity Cash Flow | P/B, Dividend Yield | Debt is operational, not financing |
| Diversified Groups 多元化集團 | Sum-of-Parts | Segment multiples | Value each segment separately |
| PE / LBO Targets PE收購目標 | LBO + APV | EV/EBITDA | IRR sensitivity to leverage |
| R&D Intensive 研發密集型 | DCF + Real Options | Pipeline valuation | Option value of R&D projects |
| Cyclical Industries 週期性行業 | Normalized DCF | Mid-cycle P/E, P/B | Use cycle-average earnings |
| Distressed / Turnaround 困境/重組 | Liquidation Value | Recovery analysis | Downside protection focus |
Mature & Stable 成熟穩定企業
Primary⭐ Enterprise DCF
Cross-CheckEV/EBITA, P/E
High-Growth Tech 高增長科技
PrimaryScenario DCF
Cross-CheckEV/Revenue, PEG
Banks / Financial 銀行/金融
PrimaryEquity Cash Flow
Cross-CheckP/B, Dividend Yield
DCF Methods
現金流折現法
Enterprise DCF ⭐
企業現金流折現法
Enterprise Value
EV = Σ[FCF÷(1+WACC)t] + CV÷(1+WACC)n
Continuing Value (Gordon Growth)
CV = NOPAT × [1-(g/RONIC)] ÷ (WACC-g)
✅ Best For 最適合
Mature, profitable companies with stable cash flows. The gold standard because it directly reflects value creation fundamentals (ROIC, growth, WACC).
⚠️ Avoid When 避免使用
Financial institutions (debt is operational), early-stage unprofitable companies, or when capital structure changes significantly.
Apple Inc.AAPL
FCF = $110B | WACC = 9.2% | g = 3%
CV = $110B × [1-(3%/20%)] ÷ (9.2%-3%)
CV = $110B × 0.85 ÷ 6.2% = $1,508B
EV ≈ PV(FCF) + PV(CV) ≈ $2.9T
Economic Profit / EVA
經濟利潤法
Economic Profit
EP = IC × (ROIC − WACC)
Enterprise Value
EV = IC₀ + PV(Economic Profits)
✅ Best For 最適合
Performance measurement and value creation analysis. Highlights whether ROIC exceeds cost of capital.
MicrosoftMSFT
IC = $200B | ROIC = 32% | WACC = 8%
EP = $200B × (32% - 8%) = $48B/year
EV = $200B + PV($48B stream)
Adjusted Present Value (APV)
調整現值法
APV Formula
EV = Vᵤ + PV(Tax Shields) − PV(Distress Costs)
✅ Best For 最適合
LBOs, changing capital structure, project finance. Separates operating value from financing effects.
Equity Cash Flow (ECF)
股權現金流法
Equity Value
E = Σ[CFE ÷ (1+kₑ)t]
✅ Best For 最適合
Banks, insurance companies, and financial institutions where debt is a core operating component.
Multiples Valuation
倍數估值法
EV/EBITA ⭐
企業倍數（推薦）
EV/EBITA Multiple
EV/EBITA = (Market Cap + Debt − Cash) ÷ EBITA
✅ Why Preferred 為什麼推薦
Excludes amortization of acquired intangibles. Capital structure neutral. Preferred over EV/EBITDA because it includes real depreciation.
P/E Ratio
市盈率
P/E Ratio
P/E = Stock Price ÷ EPS
✅ Best For
Widely used for quick communication. Use Forward P/E rather than trailing.
⚠️ Limitations
Affected by leverage, accounting policies. Not for loss-making companies.
PEG Ratio
市盈增長比
PEG Ratio
PEG = P/E ÷ EPS Growth Rate (%)
✅ Best For 最適合
Comparing growth companies. PEG < 1 often undervalued, PEG > 2 may be overvalued.
P/S (EV/Revenue)
市銷率
P/S and EV/Revenue
P/S = Price ÷ Sales Per Share
EV/Revenue = EV ÷ Total Revenue
EV/Revenue = EV ÷ Total Revenue
✅ Best For 最適合
Unprofitable high-growth companies (SaaS, early-stage tech).
⚠️ Major Limitation
Ignores profitability completely.
P/B Ratio
市淨率
P/B Ratio
P/B = Stock Price ÷ BVPS
✅ Best For 最適合
Banks, insurance, and asset-heavy companies. P/B > 1 when ROE > Cost of Equity.
EV/EBITDA
企業倍數
EV/EBITDA
EV/EBITDA = EV ÷ EBITDA
✅ Best For 最適合
Capital-intensive industries, PE/LBO transactions. Widely used but inferior to EV/EBITA.
📖 Formula Abbreviations Glossary 公式縮寫詞彙表
FCFFree Cash Flow 自由現金流
DCFDiscounted Cash Flow 現金流折現
WACCWeighted Avg Cost of Capital 加權平均資本成本
NOPATNet Operating Profit After Taxes 稅後淨營業利潤
ROICReturn on Invested Capital 投入資本回報率
RONICReturn on New Invested Capital 新投資資本回報率
CVContinuing Value 持續價值
EVEnterprise Value 企業價值
ICInvested Capital 投入資本
EP/EVAEconomic Profit 經濟利潤
APVAdjusted Present Value 調整現值
CFECash Flow to Equity 股權現金流
EBITEarnings Before Interest & Taxes 息稅前利潤
EBITAEBIT + Acquired Intangibles Amort. EBIT加回收購攤銷
EBITDAEBIT + Depreciation + Amortization 息稅折舊攤銷前利潤
EPSEarnings Per Share 每股盈利
P/EPrice to Earnings Ratio 市盈率
P/BPrice to Book Ratio 市淨率
ROEReturn on Equity 股本回報率
kₑCost of Equity 股權成本
kᵤUnlevered Cost of Equity 無槓桿股權成本
k_dCost of Debt 債務成本
RᶠRisk-Free Rate 無風險利率
βBeta (Systematic Risk) 系統性風險係數
gGrowth Rate 增長率
TTax Rate 稅率
CAPMCapital Asset Pricing Model 資本資產定價模型
PEGPrice/Earnings to Growth 市盈增長比
IRRInternal Rate of Return 內部回報率
NPVNet Present Value 淨現值
LBOLeveraged Buyout 槓桿收購
SOTPSum-of-the-Parts 分部加總估值
DDMDividend Discount Model 股利折現模型
ROVReal Options Valuation 實物期權估值
CapExCapital Expenditures 資本支出
D&ADepreciation & Amortization 折舊與攤銷
ΔWCChange in Working Capital 營運資金變動
DDebt Value 債務價值
EEquity Value 股權價值
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